The spread of Covid-19 predicted by AI... "Suddenly proliferate or end as of April, Korea"
According to a paper published on MedRxiv, a pre-release website of a medical paper published by experts in the U.S., India and Iran on October 30, Korea and China predicted that the end of Covid-19 will be decided as of April.
The trend of confirmed coroners in each country is expected based on ARIMA model based on AI analysis method. We can see that China and South Korea were predicted to be at a major crossroads in April.
The research team derived these results by using ARIMA (Automatic Recursion Integrated Mobility Average Model) based on AI analysis techniques. ARIMA is a model that uses time difference and shift of historical data to find variables such as moving mean, seasonality, etc. and predict the future based on accumulated data, and is known as a powerful and flexible predictable technique.
According to the paper, Korea is expected to see its cumulative confirmed number of people plunge or start to soar by April 30, starting from March 26. The result is a clear distinction from countries where the Covid-19 is in full swing, such as the U.S. and Europe. This means that April will be a major watershed for the end of the Covid-19. In the worst case scenario, however, the confirmed number could reach up to 30,000 on April 30.China is expected to show similar trends to Korea. According to the paper, the cumulative number of Covid-19 confirmed cases in China (excluding those with perfect teeth) could fall below 50,000 or 250,000 as of April. According to China's National Hygiene and Health Commission, 81,554 people were confirmed as of midnight, but only 2004 were confirmed to be under treatment due to complete recoveries.
In particular, concerns remain over further spread as Hong Kong media recently reported that 43,000 "non-symptomatic infections" were not included in China's statistics on the number of infected people.
In the United States, which has become the world's largest outbreak of Covid-19, the spread of the virus is likely to be unavoidable. The forecast model shows up to 1.5 million confirmed cases in the U.S. at the end of April Analysts say that even if the number of confirmed cases is reduced to a minimum due to the effect of quarantine measures, the number of confirmed cases will reach 500,000.
The situation in Europe is the same. In Italy, the cumulative number of confirmed people is expected to reach between 200,000 and 400,000 this month, while Spain is expected to record between 400,000 and 800,000 and France 100,000 to 200,000.
"The analysis produced a shocking result that the situation in the United States, in Europe, Italy, Spain and France would get worse," the researchers said. On the other hand, Covid-19 was the first to go on a large scale.
We believe that Korea and China, which have developed, have entered the trend of stability," he explained.
The U.S. is expected to become the center of the world's Covid-19 after mid-April. Based on predictions, public health officials must implement radical intervention policies to prevent the exponential spread of Covid-19. We also need urgent anti-infection measures at the hospital stage," he stressed.